The Inevitable Cost Of Low Expectations

Well, the peace talks have failed, as everyone was expecting. Oslo has degenerated to the point now that not only is no-one surprised when the process has collapses - no-one can actually summon up the indignation to be surprised by the lack of surprise, either. If there has ever been another diplomatic engagement recently which was so universally regarded as doomed that even the alleged optimists just hope for a good outcome from its inevitable demise, then I should care to see it.

This is not the death throes of Oslo - this is merely the continued decomposition of its rotting corpse. The low expectations we have for the process have led us to a position where we treat this as normal. In doing this we are playing into the hands of the Israeli right, who are trying to slowly build a fait accompli in the territories. Our indifference, our expectation that "this is just how things are done here" isn't common sense, it's one of the major factors preventing the international community's facilitation of an effective peace deal.

All three parties shoulder a great deal of blame. The US government chose to tackle the Israeli government on the wrong issue and in the wrong way and then, in the way we have all become accustomed to, Obama capitulated twice over in the face of right-wing bluster. The Netanyahu government used Lieberman as an excuse to avoid properly engaging in these talks, playing a duplicitous double game. Then the Palestinian Authority showed little leadership and even less determination. Once the Israelis and the Americans reconciled after the Biden incident, the only reason to press the Israelis was in order to keep the Palestinians at that table.

Yet they've given up and Abbas has decided to stick with the proximity talks.

Today in the Middle East is a (relatively) tranquil present with a scary future. The new route for the Palestinians, if they are going to get anything and anywhere, is to follow the path of unilateral development. Declare their state, demand recognition from the world and once more follow the lessons of resistance from the First Inifada, being careful to avoid the awful mistakes and immoral terror of the Second. Already relatively uninvolved and disinterested states such as Brazil and Argentina have begun to recognise the PA as the legitimate government of the Occupied Territories.

This has been under-reported, but it represents a significant moment in this conflict where supporting unilateral Palestinian actions is no longer the preserve of the global left or Muslim community and has instead become 'common sense' from an international community which no longer regards Israel as a rational actor which responds to persuasion and moral reasoning. The Palestinians have a chance, right now, to build their state on their terms through growing external pressure and the construction of a domestic political force for independence.

A peace deal can no longer suffer from the corrosive effect of low expectations. If this cycle of cynicism and despair can only be broken by recognising that the Oslo framework has outlived its usefulness, then this is a price we should gladly pay. The alternative is a far longer conflict which will result in a disaster for the Israeli and the Palestinian people, as well as cementing the imminent death of liberal Zionism.

EDIT: Didn't post the right version...